Drops · Realestate · Dubai · Arabian Ranches 3BackALHP-R-12857

4BR VILLA CAYA 2

4BR + 4BA · 4,761 sqft · Caya 2

▼ −22.2%Verified 54d ago

Now

$95K

was $123K−$27K · −22.2%

84-day history

−27dToday

Open on PropertyFinder

84-day history

II · THE THESIS

DEAL SCORE 59 / 100

WHY THIS IS A DEAL

BOTTOM LINE

Scored 59/100 (Good opportunity) because seller has made 1 cut since listing 86d ago. A fair offer band sits $84K–$91K.

All four signals + supporting evidence below. How do these scores work?

HEADLINE · COMPOSITE

Good opportunity

Composite of price drop, motivation, area position, and data confidence.

SCORE BREAKDOWN · 59 PTS

Drop % 35/35

Negotiability 15/25

Confidence 9/10

Free-tier shows the headline only. Insider unlocks the four detailed evidence rows below.

MOTIVATION · 50

1 cut · 86d on market · Price evidence ↓

VELOCITY MEDIUM·MOST RECENT CUT −22%

NEGOTIABILITY · HIGH

HIGH

Suggested offer $84K – $91K. Find a specialist ↓

BASED ON · MOTIVATION · CUT COUNT · TIME ON MARKET · TOTAL REDUCTION

Motivation · Negotiability · Below median · Every section below

INPUTS

4 signals + relist

WEIGHTS

Drop 35 · Neg 25 · Med 20 · Conf 10 · Relist 10

COMPS

66 comps · 2h fresh

OFFER BAND

±4% confidence

BENCHMARK

Arabian Ranches 3, last 180d

REFRESH

Hourly

III · THE EVIDENCE

1 CUT · −22.2% · −-$27K

PRICE ACTION · 26 DAYS

PRICE / TIME

Y: AED · X: days since listed · Envelope: median ±8%

AED USD EUR

AskingArea median 0.2MExpected rangeCut event

CUT-BY-CUT · 1 EVENT

D26

was $123K → $95K

26d after listing

−22.2%

-$27K

TOTAL · 26D

−22.2%

-$27K

NARRATIVESingle cut of 22.2% — early signal that the seller is testing the market.

Unlock the price history · AED 199 / mo

Every cut event · area median overlay · CSV export

IV · CASHFLOW

UAE CB GUIDELINES · YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

MORTGAGE · RENT · BREAK-EVEN

YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

Down payment20%

15%40%

Interest rate6.00%

3.50%8.00%

Term25 yr

15 yr30 yr

UAE Central Bank caps residential mortgages at 25 years tenor and 80% LTV for residents on a first home (≤AED 5M). Drag the sliders to model your own assumptions — actual rates vary by bank and profile.

MONTHLY · NOW

$491−$140 / mo

vs $631 at pre-drop price ($123K) · See cuts ↓

DOWN PAYMENT

$19K

20% of price

DLD FEE

$4K

4% of price

MORTGAGE REG

$270

0.25% loan + 290

CASH TO CLOSE

$23K

Day-one out-of-pocket

LOAN AMOUNT

$76K

25y · 6.00%

TOTAL INTEREST

$71K

Over full term

RENT VS BUY

RENT · ESTIMATE

$219

/ mo · ~6% gross yield

BUY · NOW

$491

+$272 / mo

Your monthly cost is already higher than the rent estimate — the buy vs rent break-even leans on price appreciation rather than monthly cash flow.

STRESS TEST

AT VARIOUS RATES

If rates climb to 8%, your payment grows by ~$97/mo.

V · COMPARABLES

ARABIAN RANCHES 3 · 4BR · ACTIVE

VALUE · 51 COMPS

VALUE HEADLINE

AED 74 /sqft-28%

vs area median AED 103 /sqft · 50 comps

RANK

1 / 51

CHEAPEST QUARTILE

OUR TAKE

★ Underpriced

PRICE × SIZE · DROP-WEIGHTED

DOT SIZE = DROP %

AED / SQFT · DISTRIBUTION

BREAKDOWN · 50 LISTINGS

MORE EXPENSIVE /SQFT

100% of comps

CHEAPER /SQFT

See table

MEDIAN DOM

this listing: 0d

NEW THIS WEEK

Fresh inventory

ListingPriceSizeAED/sqftDrop %DOMΔ vs this

TAKEAWAYOf 50 comparables, 50 are more expensive per sqft.

Unlock all comparables · AED 199 / mo

Scatter · distribution · full table · CSV export

4BR VILLA CAYA 2

WHY THIS IS A DEAL

PRICE ACTION · 26 DAYS

MORTGAGE · RENT · BREAK-EVEN

VALUE · 51 COMPS

GEOGRAPHY · PULSE · VELOCITY

THIS IS THE MOMENT

SIMILAR OPPORTUNITIES