Drops · Realestate · Abu Dhabi · Saadiyat IslandBackFC-S-43239

5BR VILLA SAADIYAT LAGOONS

5BR + 6BA · 9,723 sqft · Saadiyat Lagoons

▼ −1.5%★ Golden VisaVerified 2d ago

Now

AED 9.60M

was 9.75M−150K · −1.5%

7-day history

Open on PropertyFinder

7-day history

II · THE THESIS

DEAL SCORE 16 / 100

WHY THIS IS A DEAL

BOTTOM LINE

Scored 16/100 (Below average) because seller has made 1 cut since listing 8d ago. A fair offer band sits AED 8.93M–AED 9.31M.

All four signals + supporting evidence below. How do these scores work?

HEADLINE · COMPOSITE

Below average

Composite of price drop, motivation, area position, and data confidence.

SCORE BREAKDOWN · 16 PTS

Drop % 3/35

Negotiability 4/25

Confidence 9/10

Free-tier shows the headline only. Insider unlocks the four detailed evidence rows below.

MOTIVATION · 20

1 cut · 8d on market · Price evidence ↓

VELOCITY LOW·MOST RECENT CUT −2%

NEGOTIABILITY · LOW

LOW

Suggested offer AED 8.93M – AED 9.31M. Find a specialist ↓

BASED ON · MOTIVATION · CUT COUNT · TIME ON MARKET · TOTAL REDUCTION

Motivation · Negotiability · Below median · Every section below

INPUTS

4 signals + relist

WEIGHTS

Drop 35 · Neg 25 · Med 20 · Conf 10 · Relist 10

COMPS

54 comps · 2h fresh

OFFER BAND

±4% confidence

BENCHMARK

Saadiyat Island, last 180d

REFRESH

Hourly

III · THE EVIDENCE

1 CUT · −1.5% · −-150K

PRICE ACTION · 1 DAYS

PRICE / TIME

Y: AED · X: days since listed · Envelope: median ±8%

AED USD EUR

AskingArea median 2.7MExpected rangeCut event

CUT-BY-CUT · 1 EVENT

was AED 9.75M → AED 9.60M

1d after listing

−1.5%

-AED 150K

TOTAL · 1D

−1.5%

-AED 150K

NARRATIVESingle cut of 1.5% — early signal that the seller is testing the market.

Unlock the price history · AED 199 / mo

Every cut event · area median overlay · CSV export

IV · CASHFLOW

UAE CB GUIDELINES · YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

MORTGAGE · RENT · BREAK-EVEN

YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

Down payment20%

15%40%

Interest rate6.00%

3.50%8.00%

Term25 yr

15 yr30 yr

UAE Central Bank caps residential mortgages at 25 years tenor and 80% LTV for residents on a first home (≤AED 5M). Drag the sliders to model your own assumptions — actual rates vary by bank and profile.

MONTHLY · NOW

AED 49K−AED 773 / mo

vs AED 50K at pre-drop price (AED 9.75M) · See cuts ↓

DOWN PAYMENT

AED 1.92M

20% of price

DLD FEE

AED 384K

4% of price

MORTGAGE REG

AED 19K

0.25% loan + 290

CASH TO CLOSE

AED 2.32M

Day-one out-of-pocket

LOAN AMOUNT

AED 7.68M

25y · 6.00%

TOTAL INTEREST

AED 7.16M

Over full term

RENT VS BUY

RENT · ESTIMATE

AED 14K

/ mo · ~6% gross yield

BUY · NOW

AED 49K

+AED 36K / mo

Your monthly cost is already higher than the rent estimate — the buy vs rent break-even leans on price appreciation rather than monthly cash flow.

STRESS TEST

AT VARIOUS RATES

If rates climb to 8%, your payment grows by ~AED 10K/mo.

V · COMPARABLES

SAADIYAT ISLAND · 5BR · ACTIVE

VALUE · 29 COMPS

VALUE HEADLINE

AED 987 /sqft-4%

vs area median AED 1,032 /sqft · 28 comps

RANK

10 / 29

MID/HIGH RANGE

PRICE × SIZE · DROP-WEIGHTED

DOT SIZE = DROP %

AED / SQFT · DISTRIBUTION

BREAKDOWN · 28 LISTINGS

MORE EXPENSIVE /SQFT

68% of comps

CHEAPER /SQFT

See table

MEDIAN DOM

this listing: 0d

NEW THIS WEEK

Fresh inventory

ListingPriceSizeAED/sqftDrop %DOMΔ vs this

TAKEAWAYOf 28 comparables, 19 are more expensive per sqft. The 9 cheaper ones are a mix of smaller units and older buildings.

Unlock all comparables · AED 199 / mo

Scatter · distribution · full table · CSV export

5BR VILLA SAADIYAT LAGOONS

WHY THIS IS A DEAL

PRICE ACTION · 1 DAYS

MORTGAGE · RENT · BREAK-EVEN

VALUE · 29 COMPS

GEOGRAPHY · PULSE · VELOCITY

THIS IS THE MOMENT

SIMILAR OPPORTUNITIES