Drops · Realestate · Abu Dhabi · Al Jubail IslandBackPL-38536

5BR VILLA SOUK AL JUBAIL

5BR + 7BA · 17,423 sqft · Souk Al Jubail

▼ −15.4%Dropped 2×Verified 4d ago

Now

AED 550K

was 650K−125K · −15.4%

Cuts every ~39d · next-cut window open

139-day history · 2 cuts

−79dToday

Open on PropertyFinder

139-day history · 2 cuts

🔄Relisted — this listing was removed and reappeared 2 times (last: 03 Aug)

II · THE THESIS

DEAL SCORE 59 / 100

WHY THIS IS A DEAL

BOTTOM LINE

Scored 59/100 (Good opportunity) because seller has made 2 cuts over 39 days. A fair offer band sits AED 484K–AED 523K.

All four signals + supporting evidence below. How do these scores work?

HEADLINE · COMPOSITE

Good opportunity

Composite of price drop, motivation, area position, and data confidence.

SCORE BREAKDOWN · 59 PTS

Drop % 22/35

Negotiability 18/25

Confidence 9/10

Relist signal 10/10

Free-tier shows the headline only. Insider unlocks the four detailed evidence rows below.

MOTIVATION · 75

2 cuts in 39d · 319d on market · Price evidence ↓

VELOCITY HIGH·MOST RECENT CUT −13%

NEGOTIABILITY · HIGH

HIGH

Suggested offer AED 484K – AED 523K. Find a specialist ↓

BASED ON · MOTIVATION · CUT COUNT · TIME ON MARKET · TOTAL REDUCTION

Motivation · Negotiability · Below median · Every section below

INPUTS

4 signals + relist

WEIGHTS

Drop 35 · Neg 25 · Med 20 · Conf 10 · Relist 10

COMPS

56 comps · 2h fresh

OFFER BAND

±4% confidence

BENCHMARK

Al Jubail Island, last 180d

REFRESH

Hourly

III · THE EVIDENCE

2 CUTS · −15.4% · −-125K

PRICE ACTION · 78 DAYS

PRICE / TIME

Y: AED · X: days since listed · Envelope: median ±8%

AED USD EUR

AskingArea median 0.5MExpected rangeCut event

CUT-BY-CUT · 2 EVENTS

D38

was AED 650K → AED 600K

38d after listing

−7.7%

-AED 50K

D78

was AED 600K → AED 525K

39d after previous cut

−12.5%

-AED 75K

TOTAL · 78D

−15.4%

-AED 125K

NARRATIVESeller has cut 2 times in 39 days — an unusually fast cadence for this segment. Latest cut (12.5%) is a clear capitulation signal.

Unlock the price history · AED 199 / mo

Every cut event · area median overlay · CSV export

IV · CASHFLOW

UAE CB GUIDELINES · YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

MORTGAGE · RENT · BREAK-EVEN

YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

Down payment20%

15%40%

Interest rate6.00%

3.50%8.00%

Term25 yr

15 yr30 yr

UAE Central Bank caps residential mortgages at 25 years tenor and 80% LTV for residents on a first home (≤AED 5M). Drag the sliders to model your own assumptions — actual rates vary by bank and profile.

MONTHLY · NOW

AED 3K−AED 515 / mo

vs AED 3K at pre-drop price (AED 650K) · See cuts ↓

DOWN PAYMENT

AED 110K

20% of price

DLD FEE

AED 22K

4% of price

MORTGAGE REG

AED 1K

0.25% loan + 290

CASH TO CLOSE

AED 133K

Day-one out-of-pocket

LOAN AMOUNT

AED 440K

25y · 6.00%

TOTAL INTEREST

AED 410K

Over full term

RENT VS BUY

RENT · ESTIMATE

AED 3K

/ mo · ~6% gross yield

BUY · NOW

AED 3K

+AED 322 / mo

Your monthly cost is already higher than the rent estimate — the buy vs rent break-even leans on price appreciation rather than monthly cash flow.

STRESS TEST

AT VARIOUS RATES

If rates climb to 8%, your payment grows by ~AED 561/mo.

V · COMPARABLES

AL JUBAIL ISLAND · 5BR · ACTIVE

VALUE · 28 COMPS

VALUE HEADLINE

AED 32 /sqft-70%

vs area median AED 107 /sqft · 27 comps

RANK

1 / 28

CHEAPEST QUARTILE

OUR TAKE

★ Underpriced

PRICE × SIZE · DROP-WEIGHTED

DOT SIZE = DROP %

AED / SQFT · DISTRIBUTION

BREAKDOWN · 27 LISTINGS

MORE EXPENSIVE /SQFT

100% of comps

CHEAPER /SQFT

See table

MEDIAN DOM

this listing: 0d

NEW THIS WEEK

Fresh inventory

ListingPriceSizeAED/sqftDrop %DOMΔ vs this

TAKEAWAYOf 27 comparables, 27 are more expensive per sqft.

Unlock all comparables · AED 199 / mo

Scatter · distribution · full table · CSV export

5BR VILLA SOUK AL JUBAIL

WHY THIS IS A DEAL

PRICE ACTION · 78 DAYS

MORTGAGE · RENT · BREAK-EVEN

VALUE · 28 COMPS

GEOGRAPHY · PULSE · VELOCITY

THIS IS THE MOMENT

SIMILAR OPPORTUNITIES