Drops · Realestate · Dubai · Arabian Ranches 3BackDR-R-0607-VOK

3BR VILLA RAYA

3BR + 4BA · 1,764 sqft · Raya

▼ −5.9%Verified 1h ago

Now

AED 160K

was 170K−10K · −5.9%

2-day history

Open on PropertyFinder

2-day history

II · THE THESIS

DEAL SCORE 24 / 100

WHY THIS IS A DEAL

BOTTOM LINE

Scored 24/100 (Fair deal) because seller has made 1 cut since listing 3d ago and priced 1% below comparable Arabian Ranches 3 listings. A fair offer band sits AED 149K–AED 155K.

All four signals + supporting evidence below. How do these scores work?

HEADLINE · COMPOSITE

Fair deal

Composite of price drop, motivation, area position, and data confidence.

SCORE BREAKDOWN · 24 PTS

Drop % 10/35

Negotiability 5/25

Confidence 9/10

Free-tier shows the headline only. Insider unlocks the four detailed evidence rows below.

MOTIVATION · 25

1 cut · 3d on market · Price evidence ↓

VELOCITY LOW·MOST RECENT CUT −6%

NEGOTIABILITY · LOW

LOW

Suggested offer AED 149K – AED 155K. Find a specialist ↓

BASED ON · MOTIVATION · CUT COUNT · TIME ON MARKET · TOTAL REDUCTION

BELOW MEDIAN · −1%

−1%

AED 91/sqft vs area median 104/sqft. See 66 comps ↓

66 ACTIVE COMPS IN ARABIAN RANCHES 3

Motivation · Negotiability · Below median · Every section below

INPUTS

4 signals + relist

WEIGHTS

Drop 35 · Neg 25 · Med 20 · Conf 10 · Relist 10

COMPS

66 comps · 2h fresh

OFFER BAND

±4% confidence

BENCHMARK

Arabian Ranches 3, last 180d

REFRESH

Hourly

III · THE EVIDENCE

1 CUT · −5.9% · −-10K

PRICE ACTION · 1 DAYS

PRICE / TIME

Y: AED · X: days since listed · Envelope: median ±8%

AED USD EUR

AskingArea median 0.2MExpected rangeCut event

CUT-BY-CUT · 1 EVENT

was AED 170K → AED 160K

1d after listing

−5.9%

-AED 10K

TOTAL · 1D

−5.9%

-AED 10K

NARRATIVESingle cut of 5.9% — early signal that the seller is testing the market.

Unlock the price history · AED 199 / mo

Every cut event · area median overlay · CSV export

IV · CASHFLOW

UAE CB GUIDELINES · YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

MORTGAGE · RENT · BREAK-EVEN

YOUR ASSUMPTIONS

Down payment20%

15%40%

Interest rate6.00%

3.50%8.00%

Term25 yr

15 yr30 yr

UAE Central Bank caps residential mortgages at 25 years tenor and 80% LTV for residents on a first home (≤AED 5M). Drag the sliders to model your own assumptions — actual rates vary by bank and profile.

MONTHLY · NOW

AED 825−AED 52 / mo

vs AED 876 at pre-drop price (AED 170K) · See cuts ↓

DOWN PAYMENT

AED 32K

20% of price

DLD FEE

AED 6K

4% of price

MORTGAGE REG

AED 610

0.25% loan + 290

CASH TO CLOSE

AED 39K

Day-one out-of-pocket

LOAN AMOUNT

AED 128K

25y · 6.00%

TOTAL INTEREST

AED 119K

Over full term

RENT VS BUY

RENT · ESTIMATE

AED 805

/ mo · ~6% gross yield

BUY · NOW

AED 825

+AED 20 / mo

Your monthly cost is already higher than the rent estimate — the buy vs rent break-even leans on price appreciation rather than monthly cash flow.

STRESS TEST

AT VARIOUS RATES

If rates climb to 8%, your payment grows by ~AED 163/mo.

V · COMPARABLES

ARABIAN RANCHES 3 · 3BR · ACTIVE

VALUE · 51 COMPS

VALUE HEADLINE

AED 91 /sqft-12%

vs area median AED 104 /sqft · 50 comps

RANK

7 / 51

CHEAPEST QUARTILE

OUR TAKE

★ Underpriced

PRICE × SIZE · DROP-WEIGHTED

DOT SIZE = DROP %

AED / SQFT · DISTRIBUTION

BREAKDOWN · 50 LISTINGS

MORE EXPENSIVE /SQFT

88% of comps

CHEAPER /SQFT

See table

MEDIAN DOM

this listing: 0d

NEW THIS WEEK

Fresh inventory

ListingPriceSizeAED/sqftDrop %DOMΔ vs this

TAKEAWAYOf 50 comparables, 44 are more expensive per sqft. The 6 cheaper ones are a mix of smaller units and older buildings.

Unlock all comparables · AED 199 / mo

Scatter · distribution · full table · CSV export

3BR VILLA RAYA

WHY THIS IS A DEAL

PRICE ACTION · 1 DAYS

MORTGAGE · RENT · BREAK-EVEN

VALUE · 51 COMPS

GEOGRAPHY · PULSE · VELOCITY

THIS IS THE MOMENT

SIMILAR OPPORTUNITIES